FanBoardHQ

Western Michigan

Western Michigan University · 2022 · Mid-American

FanBoardHQ CFP
#110
Efficiency
-16.6
120th FBS
Record
5-7
Conf. record
4-4
Conf. finish
T-6th
of 12
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Western Michigan went 5-7 and was ranked 110th in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 83rd-ranked defense carried them, with a 129th-ranked offense. They ran the ball on 52% of offensive plays with a 132nd-ranked rushing attack and passed the ball on the remaining 48% of plays with a 127th-ranked passing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
0-0
Q2
0-1
Q3
0-2
Q4
5-4

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Expected: 5.0 wins
Strength of Record
105th
-5.3 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
125th
full season
125th
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
122nd
a 25th-ranked team would win ~7.2 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1@ Michigan StateBig Ten#67L 1335-19.40%-15.4Q3
2@ Ball StateMid-American#108W 3730-5.3100%-7.8Q4
3vs PittsburghACC#26L 1334-23.60%-18.1Q2
4@ San José StateMountain West#78L 634-12.90%-34.4Q3
5vs New HampshireCAAW 447+4.0100%7.3Q4
6vs Eastern MichiganMid-American#75L 2345-3.90%-45.1Q4
7vs OhioMid-American#62L 1433-9.80%-23.4Q4
8@ Miami-OHMid-American#101W 1610-6.0100%-6.6Q4
10@ Bowling GreenMid-American#104L 913-2.50%-18.0Q4
11vs Northern IllinoisMid-American#122L 2124+4.90%-25.1Q4
12@ Central MichiganMid-American#115W 1210-3.9100%-11.1Q4
13vs ToledoMid-American#69W 2014-10.0100%-1.8Q4

12 played · 5-7. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Western Michigan, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-40.9-18.9+3.1-15-8-18-347-45-23-7-18-25-11-2Week 0Week 17
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 127th
SR 125thYPP 126thEPA 131st
RushingEff 132nd
SR 132ndYPP 115thEPA 134th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 121st
SR 96thYPP 128thEPA 124th
Rush defenseEff 93rd
SR 98thYPP 106thEPA 90th
Dropback rate 48%Tempo -4.0 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 89th on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 39%1st · Defense allowed: 46%1st2nd · Offense: 29%2nd · Defense allowed: 45%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 34%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 35%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 55.0Q1 · Allowed: 57.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 47.0Q2 · Allowed: 98.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 71.0Q3 · Allowed: 45.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 27.0Q4 · Allowed: 82.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledWestern MichiganOffenseDefense
Western Michigan Offense vs Defense, 2022
Offensive EffRanked 129th
-15.3
Field position: -1.5Finishing drives: -13.8
Field position -1.5Finishing drives -13.8= -15.3
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 116th · Finishing 128th

Defensive EffRanked 83rd
-2.5
Field position: -1.2Finishing drives: -1.3
Field position -1.2Finishing drives -1.3= -2.5
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 102nd · Finishing 78th

1.23 points per drive on offense, 1.82 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 30.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(155)47% / 53%40%5.7
Q2(202)45% / 55%34%4.7
Q3(189)51% / 49%39%5.9
Q4(183)51% / 49%26%3.1
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(122)10.441%5.2
2nd(116)9.030%5.2
3rd(102)8.729%4.9
4th(13)7.646%2.5
All (353)34%5.0
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(177)10.038%4.5
2nd(119)8.127%4.8
3rd(67)7.334%5.5
4th(13)2.054%2.5
All (376)35%4.7

Western Michigan, all games.